I don’t expect another 100/1 winner of the Grand National today, but I do think an outsider could triumph again and the one I fancy is Eric’s Charm at around 50/1.

Mon Mome’s success last year was a stunning result for us bookies, and that horse fitted in with many of the trends that should be followed in the search for the Aintree hero.

Year after year the stats keep producing the goods and one of the most reliable and helpful is the fact that in the last 25 Grand Nationals only one horse has carried more than 11st to victory.

If that trend is to continue, you can strike out the top 15 runners in the field of 40 because four-and-a-half miles is just too long a distance over which to shoulder a hefty burden.

Age is another big factor and seven and eight-year-olds have a poor record since the era of the great Red Rum in the 1970s.

Therefore, you need to be looking for a horse who is nine or older, carries a weight ideally of 10st 10lb or less, has won over at least three miles and, preferably, has not run in the Grand National before. Many jockeys say some horses just don’t fancy it a second time.

Eric’s Charm has ticks in all the right boxes, and what’s more he is the only horse in the race this year to have won on his last two starts, so is clearly in great form.

Regarded as something of a Sandown specialist, he scored at his favourite track in December but also showed his capability on flat left-handed courses like Aintree with a fluent Newbury success last month.

A veteran now at 12, he can defy his seniority as Amberleigh House and Royal Athlete have done in the last 15 years, and looks terrific value to give trainer Oliver Sherwood and jockey Wayne Hutchinson their first Grand National wins.

Of the favourites, I think Mon Mome has risen too much in the weights for last year’s shock triumph and may be flattered by his recent third place in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, while Paul Nicholls’ duo Big Fella Thanks and Tricky Trickster still lack experience.

But I can see Character Building giving Irish lady amateur jockey Nina Carberry a great ride after she was booked for the grey by his new owner Patricia Thompson, who was lucky with her last-minute purchase of 1992 winner Party Politics.

There are obvious similarities 18 years on, for, just like 1992, we are in the build-up to a general election. The horse may not be as topically named this time, but I can assure you the Grand National is a Character Building experience!