This weekend’s highlight is the Irish Derby at The Curragh on Sunday, but it’s a race in which you’re unlikely to get rich by finding the winner.
Sea The Stars, hero of the 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby, will be a red-hot favourite if he runs, but his trainer John Oxx is delaying a decision on his participation until tomorrow afternoon at the earliest.
Oxx is concerned that the showers forecast for Co Kildare will soften the ground too much, but even if Sea The Stars does not turn up there is likely to be a warm order in his closest Epsom pursuer Fame And Glory.
Aidan O’Brien trains 10 of the 17 possible runners with Fame And Glory the pick of them ahead of Masterofthehorse, who finished a neck behind him at Epsom.
Johnny Murtagh is expected to choose Fame And Glory as his mount and the son of Montjeu, who won this race himself 10 years ago, should be better suited by this track.
In summary, with or without Sea The Stars in the line-up, I expect the favourite to win the Irish Derby.
But that’s not necessarily the case with tomorrow’s big betting race, the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle. At this stage, it looks so open that it’s impossible to predict what will even go off as the ‘jolly’.
Keenes Day and Hendersyde are vying for favouritism in my book, but I’ll also be taking no chances with a couple of horses who showed up well in handicaps at Royal Ascot last week.
On the form of the Ascot Stakes, Keenes Day was well held by Judgethemoment, who won that race, and I don’t see any reason why the tables should be turned.
Backers of Keenes Day will point out that he should be much better suited by this shorter trip. But I’m not convinced it will be enough for him to gain revenge on Judgethemoment, who keeps doing just enough in his races and bids for a four-timer here.
Mark Johnston, trainer of Keenes Day, looks to have an equally good chance in my opinion with Record Breaker, whom I noticed running an eye-catching race in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes last Saturday.
The five-year-old was outpaced when the race began in earnest but stayed on really well in the home straight to suggest the step up to two miles is what he needs. Record Breaker looks a solid each-way bet.
Opening the Newcastle card is the Chipchase Stakes, a race that has grown in prestige in recent years although it looks a below-par renewal this time.
Most interest will surround the reappearance of classy ex-South African sprinter War Artist, who runs for the first time since finishing third in last year’s July Cup.
James Eustace’s six-year-old gelding has been absent as he suffered from colic after making most of the running in the prestigious Newmarket contest, in which he was collared only close home by Marchand D’Or and US Ranger.
He faces nothing of that calibre this time and as long as fitness is not an issue, War Artist should kick off his year with a win.
Fred Done
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