Testing the fans' theories on Bolton Wanderers' league woes

There are certain commonly accepted beliefs among the fanbase, arguments which are launched unchallenged on social media and internet forums.

That received wisdom must steam from somewhere, of course, and it would be daft to dispute that the Whites’ record against their immediate rivals has cost them precious ground on the top two in the last few seasons. Likewise, you only need to cast your mind back to last weekend to find an example of a local ‘derby’ that has turned sour.

But does the trend really run through Ian Evatt’s four-and-a-third seasons in charge? Is his team guilty of wilting all the time, or just at the wrong times?

We have looked into the numbers since the summer of 2020 to check it out.

THE TOP SIX CURSE.

As fortunes fluctuate throughout a season, defining exactly what is a ‘top six side’ in this context needs some boundaries.

During a forgettable 2018/19 season in the Championship under Phil Parkinson, for example, Bolton only came up against a team who started the match in question occupying a top six spot on nine occasions. Of those games they managed just one win, Craig Noone scoring the winner against Darby County, and lost the other eight.

But if you took the ‘final’ top six in the table, Wanderers could add their opening day victory against West Brom to the list – a day in the Midlands before the dark clouds conspired, where Josh Magennis and Yanic Wildschut gave the travelling fans a day to remember.

There is a similar disparity in the stats for Evatt’s Bolton, who have racked up exactly 50 games since he became manager against sides who started the day in the top six in either League One or League Two. Of those, 14 ended up in victories (28 per cent), 19 were draws and 17 were defeats.

If you only count teams who finished in the top six at the end of the last four seasons, then the numbers alter – and not in Evatt’s favour. Of the 44 games, Bolton have won 10, drawn six and lost 16, a win rate of just 22.4 per cent.

It is worth highlighting that half of those defeats arrived in a single season, and the only one that Wanderers have finished outside the play-off positions. During that 2021/22 campaign, the 6-0 home victory against Sunderland was the only occasion they toppled a member of the final top six.

Evatt currently stands on 99 league wins and will be dearly hoping his 100th comes after the international break against Blackpool. He has contested 198 league games to date, which gives him an overall win rate of exactly 50 per cent.

You would normally expect a decrease in the number of wins achieved against top six teams, as opposed to those placed lower in the division. The disparity does feel high, however, and lends weight to the fans’ theory that the team has not performed well enough against its direct rivals at the top end of the table.

THE LOCAL CURSE.

The term ‘derby’ in football is a disputed one. And for the sake of this article, we are not going to get into the argument of which sides constitute a derby, and which do not; rather, we need to set some cast iron and undisputable parameters.

One of the common threads in recent weeks has been that a large number of Wanderers’ wins against ‘local’ rivals have been against Fleetwood Town, and the win column received another notch on Tuesday night in the Bristol Street Motors Trophy.

Google maps out a 44.1-mile drive to Fleetwood, and 48.9 to Morecambe, so a 50-mile radius seemed a fair one to draw around the town centre to decide which games came into this category.

For the record, Port Vale (52.6 miles), Wrexham (58.9) and Barnsley (62.3) miss out but Leeds (47.5) and Crewe (46.4) sneak in.

Does the geographical proximity of an opposition club affect Bolton’s results? The figures suggest there is a dip – but the real reason supporters subscribe to the theory is that some of the most stinging results in Evatt’s tenure have been damaging defeats against the likes of Wigan Athletic, Stockport County, Blackpool and Accrington Stanley. The results have left an emotional footprint, which has been difficult to forgive and forget.

In all competitions, Bolton have faced teams from within the 50-mile radius on 51 occasions. They have managed 25 wins, 10 draws and 16 defeats. And, yes, six of those wins have been against Fleetwood.

They have not in that time registered a single win against Wigan, which is a statistic Evatt and hs players could do with changing, and true highlights since the club returned to League One have been few and far between, George Thomason’s winner against Blackpool at the Toughsheet arguably the pick of the bunch.

It is also fair to highlight that more than half (13) of those wins have been in the FA Cup, Carabao Cup, or various incarnations of the EFL Trophy.

Looking solely at league football, Bolton have played 30 games, won 12, drawn six and lost 12. That gives then a win rate of 40 per cent – which is lower than the overall figure under Evatt (50 per cent) but not necessarily the clear-cut fact it has often been claimed.

The Whites have taken 44 points from a possible 90 against clubs within a 50-mile radius, which equates to 48.8 per cent of those available.

Wanderers’ record in all league games under Evatt has seen them take 343 points from a possible 594 – which works out at 57.7 per cent, indicating they do fare better against teams from further afield.

There are other factors to be taken into consideration, of course. Bolton’s stature as a club at League One level, and previously League Two, potentially makes them a target. One could question whether the same motivation exists for the players – even the fanbase – when travelling to Accrington, for example, as it does the other way around?

And does being situated in the middle of the footballing hotbed of the North West mean ‘local’ games just come up more regularly than they would do for a team like Exeter City, Crawley, or Bristol Rovers?

Whatever the reason, Evatt and his players must find a way to improve their results against promotion rivals AND local sides if they want to mend bridges with the fanbase, and eventually escape League One.

They will have an opportunity to do both before the end of the year, with games coming up against Blackpool and Wigan, plus current top six residents Mansfield Town, Wycombe, Barnsley and Lincoln. Manage that, and they might yet go into 2025 with a brighter mood.