Can Bolton Wanderers still change the pattern of 2024?

Below them stood Barnsley, then Bolton Wanderers, who shared third spot alongside such dignitaries as Arsenal, Liverpool, Wycombe, Exeter and Peterborough with 11 victories on the road during the calendar year.

Ordinarily, such stats do good business on Bolton Twitter, and the best often make their way into Ian Evatt’s pre-match conversations, the manager always happy to underline a positive set of numbers when he gets the opportunity.

Manchester City’s record merely underlines their prolific winning habit at home or away, and Doncaster’s considerable improvement under Grant McCann in the second half of last season saw them make a Bolton-esque bid for promotion in League Two, which only fell short at Crewe on penalties in the play-off semi-final.

Wanderers found out first hand Barnsley’s Jekyll and Hyde personality at home and away back in April too – and the South Yorkshiremen continue to struggle at Oakwell to this day.

But for the first time since Evatt led the Whites into League One, they too are finding better results away from the Toughsheet Stadium, with home no longer feeling quite as sweet as it once did.

Not including penalty shoot-outs, Wanderers have won just three of nine home games this season, compared to six from 10 away from home.

Table showing the win percentages, home and away, in the full calendar years under Ian Evatt alongside the current one (Image: NQ) Historically, Evatt’s home form as Bolton boss has been encouraging. In 92 games played in all competitions between 2021 and 2023, the previous calendar years in which he has been at the helm, his team won 58 of them (63 per cent).

There have been issues against sides who sit deep, daring the possession-based Bolton to break them down. But while there have undoubtedly been some frustrating afternoons spent watching ball moved rhythmically from one side of the pitch to the next, there have been more positive outcomes than negatives.

Even given the problems which emerged at the start of this year, where a wretched run of injuries exacerbated a fixture list bloated by two cup runs and rescheduled games, Bolton’s home form remained relatively strong.

Over the whole calendar year to date Wanderers have won 10 of 22 games in all competitions, taking 35 points from 17 home league matches, which puts them inside Evatt’s usual target of two-per-game.

This season’s slow start has eroded that record, however, and means in terms of win percentage, this is practically guaranteed to end up at the club’s least successful at home under the current boss.

Even if Bolton won all five remaining home games in 2024, they would still only boost their win percentage from its current 45.45 per cent to 57.14 per cent, which is exactly what they achieved over the course of Covid-affected 2021, a year split across League One and Two.

Results away from home in 2024 have been on-par with the Evatt era as a whole. They improved in 2023, with 15 wins from 26 games (a win percentage of 57.7), but are currently resting at 11 wins from 26 (42.3). Over the previous three years, Bolton’s away win percentage in all competitions was 46.1 per cent.

In total they have managed 26 points from 18 league games away games since New Year’s Day.

There may be something to the theory that Bolton are finding a more effective way to play away from home, however, despite enjoying roughly the same amount of possession.

Ricardo Santos chases Crawley's Will Swann in one of Bolton's best away performances so far this season (Image: Camerasport)

While Evatt has deliberately sacrificed the ball at places like Crawley and Birmingham, there is hardly any difference in the amount of possession they have had away from home (58 per cent average) compared to the Toughsheet (59 per cent). Those numbers also tally with last season’s average of 58.5 per cent across the board.

Wanderers underwent a style change in the summer, moving to three up front in an effort to shift the long-held narrative that opposing teams were ‘wising up’ to their approach. The early results were not especially encouraging but as Evatt has been forced to chop and change because of injuries over the last month, there has been evidence to suggests the 3-4-3 formation is starting to click, especially against sides who employ a back four.

Whether they get the opportunity to test that theory this weekend at Edgley Park remains to be seen. Dave Challinor’s side has been flexible this season but have started with a back three in each of their last four games.

Wins at Northampton and Stevenage illustrated a steelier and more ruthless side to Bolton on their travels, an ability to soak up more pressure and hit harder on the break, but explaining some of the more passive home traits is a tougher task.

Klaidi Lolos made sure Bolton's last home game finished with a bang (Image: Camerasport) All four of Bolton’s first-half goals at home in League One came in one game, against Reading, and though the Peterborough match had a joyful conclusion with Klaidi Lolos’s late winner, it did follow a familiar path of gilt-edged chances missed.

Wanderers currently have nine games left in 2024 and may yet have 10 if they rearrange their visit to Rotherham United for the FA Cup second round weekend. Five of those fixtures are due to be played at home against Blackpool, Mansfield, Wigan, Barnsley and Lincoln City.

Evatt had set his side a 10-point target for the last block of five games leading up to the international break and that can be surpassed if they can record a 12th away win of the year at the home of their local rivals this weekend.

But given the opposition – and particularly those with local flavour against Blackpool and Wigan – the majority of Bolton’s hard work in the winter run will be done in front of their own supporters’ judgemental gaze.

There is time yet to make sure that 2024 does not end up being regarded as the great annus horribilis of Evatt’s tenure.

Scott Arfield looks dejected after Wanderers' 4-0 home defeat to Huddersfield Town (Image: Camerasport)