ARE Bolton Wanderers better equipped for an automatic promotion push than they were 12 months ago?
Framing their success or failure this season has been a difficult task. Just six weeks ago, calls from some sections of the fanbase for a change in management were hard to ignore, and even as his side stabilised form and climbed the league, there has been an undeniable sense that some supporters are yet to be convinced that they can make that final, crucial step towards Championship football.
Ian Evatt was backed by the board at his lowest ebb after a 4-0 home defeat to Huddersfield Town, which left the club 21st in the table, but over the last eight games only Wycombe can say they have claimed more points.
If all goes well this weekend at Stockport and other results at the top end of the table fall in their favour, third place could be up for grabs.
The Whites are three points behind where they were after 13 games in 2023/24, and will remain so even if they win their 14th at Edgeley Park, but after months of debating what had gone wrong post play-off final and what was not working on the pitch, Evatt’s side are now mounting something of a retort.
With more than a quarter of the campaign now gone, we attempt to compare and contrast.
KEEPING THEM OUT
The major change in personnel at the back is the welcome return of George Johnston, who has bounced back in some style after missing all of last season with a knee injury.
Ricardo Santos remains as integral to Ian Evatt’s plan as ever, albeit he is now without the captain’s armband, a move made by the manager to take some pressure off his shoulders post-Wembley. Saturday’s FA Cup defeat highlighted some of the issues Bolton face without him in the team and though he has experienced a patchy spell in his relationship with sections of the fanbase, his recent form has been exemplary.
Eoin Toal had managed to switch from the left side of the back three to the right thanks to Johnston’s comeback but tore a hamstring in the win at Stevenage and will now be out for the rest of the year. That has opened up an opportunity for Will Forrester – whose Bolton career to date has been a stop-start affair – and with summer signing Chris Forino also missing for a couple of months after hamstring surgery and Gethin Jones only just back from a knee problem, hopes are pinned on him finding his best form to help Wanderers through the winter.
Coincidentally it was at this time of year that fans were calling for Forrester to get his shot ahead of Jones and the two may now go head-to-head until Toal recovers.
Wanderers have kept three clean sheets in the league so far, against Wrexham, Crawley and Peterborough, which tallies up with the same number 12 months ago. Back then, Lincoln and Cheltenham had been shut out in the opening two games and it wasn’t until a 1-0 win at Port Vale in late September that they grabbed a third.
Goalkeeping duties have been split, with Nathan Baxter picking up an injury at Northampton a few weeks ago, which gave an opportunity to summer arrival Luke Southwood.
This season the Whites have conceded 19 goals, four of which were against Huddersfield. Last term they had leaked 18 by this stage, and it was the 4-0 home defeat at Wigan Athletic that had done the damage.
Over the course of last season, Bolton offered up an average of 7.19 shots per game during open play in the league but over their first 13 games in the current campaign that total has increased to 10.16.
Across the division only four clubs have allowed fewer shots from open play – Birmingham City, Lincoln City, Huddersfield and Saturday’s opponents Stockport County.
At set pieces, data from Opta says Wanderers conceded 3.8 shots per game last season and that it is almost exactly the same this time around. That total places them 13th of 24 teams in League One, suggesting it is still an area in which they can improve.
PUTTING THEM IN
Wanderers’ summer recruitment was quite attack-focussed, and after the departures of Cameron Jerome and Jon Dadi Bodvarsson, the likes of John McAtee, Klaidi Lolos and Scott Arfield were added to the forward options, with Evatt moving to a slightly different shape than the one he had employed throughout the whole of the previous campaign.
The ‘three-box-three’ formation enabled him to fit in three of his forward line – for example, Dion Charles, Aaron Collins and McAtee – but teething problems with the new shape saw him revert back to 3-5-2 in mid-September to try and instigate a change in form.
At the 13-game stage, Bolton had scored 25 times last season and were League One’s second most-prolific attack, behind Barnsley. A flood of cup goals was also pushing Evatt’s side towards a record high for the number scored in a calendar year.
Wanderers have scored three fewer goals this time around but have produced more shots on goal in open play, rising from an average of 11.17 last season to 14.38 so far this term.
From set plays, Bolton have hit 56 shots at goal at an average of 4.6 per game. That is an improvement on last year’s figures, where they ended with an average 3.4 attempts from corners and free kicks.
The percentage of shots on target overall has not changed significantly between the two seasons, and currently rests at 35.5 – putting Bolton 11th out of the clubs in League One. They finished last year with a similar number (35.6 per cent) and were placed sixth after 46 games.
KEEPING THE BALL
Wanderers’ gameplan has always revolved around possession but there have already been four occasions this season – against Reading, Crawley, Birmingham and Stevenage - where they had less than 50 per cent of the ball, hinting that they are more prepared to mix up their style.
That happened only three times in the entirety of last season, a home draw with 10 men against Peterborough United, the 2-0 home win against Charlton Athletic and another late-season win at the Toughsheet against Bristol Rovers.
So far this season they have averaged a possession percentage of 52.7, placing them seventh in League One.
Last season they had averaged 55.3 per cent over the first 13 games, climbing to 58.5 per cent over all 46 league games.
INJURY ISSUES
Wanderers had got to the 13-game marker without too many injuries last season but had been without defender George Johnston since the summer. Kyle Dempsey also needed time to recover from a facture in his back and Paris Maghoma took several games to overcome a hamstring injury.
The situation this time around has been more severe, with eight first team options currently unavailable to Evatt until after the international break.
Gethin Jones, Jordi Osei-Tutu, Nathan Baxter, George Thomason, Carlos Mendes Gomes, Kyle Dempsey, Eoin Toal and Chris Forino are all missing at present, representing a third of the whole senior squad.
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