VICTORY at Barrow in the Bristol Street Motors Trophy went relatively unheralded by all but a few diehard groundhoppers last week – but could it provide the spark Wanderers have been waiting for up front?
Scoring goals has not been a common problem for Bolton under Ian Evatt, indeed, the three scored at Holker Street last Tuesday evening took his team close to the 400-mark in all competitions during the four years he has been at the helm.
A more frequent complaint, however, has been that Wanderers have missed too many ‘big opportunities’ in recent seasons, particularly in the tighter games against direct rivals in the league table. These occasions tend to have a more profound psychological effect on the game and are all-too-often the ones supporters are left reflecting upon after a damaging defeat.
Statistics from Opta define nine of the opportunities created by Bolton this season as ‘Big Chances’ – i.e. those that the player involved is reasonably expected to score. Over the first four games just one of those chances has been converted into a goal.
Since Victor Adeboyejo made that ‘Big Chance’ count on the opening day win at Leyton Orient, the Whites have failed to score at all in the league. And though Wrexham’s Arthur Okonkwo will feel he had more of a say in the goalless draw at the Toughsheet last month, Bolton’s last two goalless outings against Charlton Athletic and Exeter City have felt decidedly more self-inflicted.
Of the 34 shots taken in the two games, just six have been on target and one hit the woodwork.
In total, Wanderers have converted just 3.77 per cent of their shots into goals, a marginally better return than Rotherham, who have a League One low of 3.75 per cent. In defence of the Millers’ front line, however, they have also hit the woodwork on five occasions already this season. Leading the way with impressive efficiency are Lincoln City, who have scored with 22.5 per cent of the shots they have taken.
Manager Evatt studies the numbers as hard as anyone, and he will tell you with some conviction that his team is worth more than their points total currently shows. He has also been around the game long enough to know that with his team placed 18th in the table with one win from four, and with patchy form during 2024 as a whole, those stats are a hard sell indeed.
He has reasoned, quite logically, that confidence has taken a hit over the last few weeks, and that the frustration has been felt just as much by the players as the supporters. That John McAtee, Aaron Collins and Kyle Dempsey all scored their first goals of the season at Barrow could be good timing, but Dion Charles’ difficult international double header for Northern Ireland against Luxembourg and Bulgaria could easily have the reverse effect.
The Bolton talisman was taken off at half time at Windsor Park in the first Nations League game and then given an hour in Plovdiv on Sunday night as Michael O’Neill’s side struggled on a poor playing surface.
Charles did get himself off the mark at Orient last month and also looked sharp against Shrewsbury in the Carabao Cup, but the last three league games have been fruitless affairs despite him finishing each with the highest ‘expected goals’ tally of any Bolton player on the pitch.
Expectation that Wanderers must produce a response to the previous two defeats is high for this weekend’s game against Huddersfield, even though the West Yorkshiremen look formidable opponents on paper after a strong start to the season after relegation from the Championship.
Michael Duff’s side are second only to Barnsley (14) in the division for ‘Big Chances’ created, and yet, like Bolton, their conversion rate is also relatively low, with only three of the dozen opportunities converted into goals.
Defensively the Terriers have been sound and have only conceded once in open play, that coming against Rotherham in their only defeat so far at a time when they were playing with 10 men.
Bolton too have given very little away, conceding just 30 shots to their opponents, which is the lowest total of any League One side barring Stevenage. What they have offered up has been punished ruthlessly, and only Blackpool and Leyton Orient have had a greater percentage of shots turn into goals against.
The laws of probability might suggest those trends won’t continue forever, that Bolton’s high number of chances created will eventually tell and the goals conceded will also slow down. But with the pressure building and breakouts of frustration clear for all to see during and after the previous home game, time and patience are finite.
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