Bolton Wanderers permutations in League One promotion and play-offs

Whilst Derby County are firmly in the driving seat for the final remaining automatic promotion spot – and it would take an incredible sequence of results for them to drop the ball at this late stage – jostling for places in the play-offs remains a complex situation.

If, as expected, they miss out on the top two, Bolton are guaranteed a home game in the semi-final second leg as they can only finish third or fourth.

Who they will face over two legs remains to be seen – and a reunion with Barnsley, who beat them at the same stage last season cannot be counted out.

Lincoln, Oxford and Blackpool are also hopeful they will finish in the top six and stand some chance of reaching the showpiece at Wembley in mid-May.

Here we look at all the permutations for this weekend’s lunchtime kick-offs.

For Bolton to be promoted

Firstly, Derby County would have to lose at home to Carlisle United. Wanderers would also have to win at Peterborough United. But crucially both results must combine to turn around the goal difference deficit which currently exists.

The Rams have a goal difference of +39 whereas Bolton’s is currently +35. Therefore, if Derby were to lose their game 1-0 then Ian Evatt’s side would have to win their game 3-0.

Were goal difference to end up being equal, the team with the highest number of goals scored would finish second. As things stand, Bolton lead Derby on that front by 83 to 76.

For Peterborough to be promoted

Similarly to Wanderers, they would need Derby to slip up in grand style at home to Carlisle. But Posh would also need to beat Cheltenham and Bolton handsomely to turn around a goal difference deficit which currently stands at nine.

For Bolton to finish third

If Derby get any sort of positive result at home to Carlisle then the best Wanderers can do is finish ahead of Peterborough in third.

Posh face Cheltenham on Tuesday night, which will clarify things further, but they could draw level on 86 points with Wanderers if they win at Whaddon Road. They would need to win by five clear goals to move ahead of the Whites, however, which would then mean a draw would be good enough for Darren Ferguson’s side to keep third spot when the two sides meet on the final day of the season.

If Peterborough fail to win by five or more clear goals then Bolton would keep third spot with any sort of positive result on Saturday afternoon.

For Bolton to finish fourth

If Peterborough win both of their remaining games, against Cheltenham and Bolton, then they would climb to third and Wanderers would drop to fourth – the lowest spot they have occupied since January 20.

Posh would also climb above Bolton if they won by five or more clear goals on Tuesday night, at which point a draw would be good enough to keep third spot by virtue of goals scored.

But who do Wanderers face in the play-offs?

The battle for fifth and sixth spot currently involves four different clubs – Barnsley, Lincoln, Oxford and Blackpool.

Barnsley are perhaps best placed to finish fifth. Currently on 75 points, the South Yorkshiremen host Northampton Town at Oakwell on Saturday.

But after a desperate slide in form in which they took just eight points from a possible 30 since Wanderers came back to snatch a point against them on March 5, the Tykes dispensed with the services of manager Neil Collins earlier today.

In-form Lincoln currently occupy sixth spot on goal difference from Oxford, with both clubs currently on 74 points. The Imps host champions Portsmouth at the LNER Stadium and know a win would almost certainly secure a play-off spot, be it in fifth or sixth spot.

Oxford travel to Exeter hoping that either Barnsley or Lincoln slip in their respective game. Like Wanderers, it would require a large swing to bring goal difference into play, Blackpool – also on a good run - are not completely out of it on 73 points but would need to win at Reading and hope two of Barnsley, Oxford and Lincoln fail to win their respective games.

When would Bolton play in the play-offs?

If Evatt’s side finish third, then they would face the sixth-placed team away from home in the semi-final first leg on Friday, May 3. The home game would then be played four days later on Tuesday, May 7.

If the Whites end up fourth, they travel to the away game on Saturday, May 4 (7.45pm kick-off), and then host the home game on Wednesday, May 8.

The play off final would then see both semi-final winners meet at Wembley on Saturday, May 18 (3pm).