WANDERERS have not lost a game since walking off a waterlogged pitch at Cambridge United a fortnight ago, and yet the pressure on them to bring three points back home this time seems far greater.
Draws against Northampton Town and Charlton Athletic, either side of a home win against Wycombe Wanderers, have kept Ian Evatt’s side within touching distance of the top two.
But there can be little argument that the momentum has slowed for the Whites since the turn of the year, particularly when compared to the clubs they are chasing.
We are dealing with small margins here; Portsmouth have taken 19 points from their eight games since the turn of the year, Derby have managed 17. Both teams have lost just once. Bolton, by virtue of a couple more draws, have added 15 points to their total.
Considering some of the players absent in recent weeks, you may feel Wanderers have done well to keep things that close. Nathan Baxter, Ricardo Santos and Dion Charles have picked up injuries, George Thomason had a three-game ban upheld by the FA for his red card at Northampton, and January window signings have been quickly added to the rotation, still to completely find their feet at their new club.
Others may feel that all of the above is excuse-making, and a chunk of the fanbase has been noticeably vocal of late to express their concern at what they see is a drop in performance, or worse, a view that this team is simply not equipped to claim a top two place.
Wanderers remain within the two-points-per-game target that was set by Evatt at the start of the season. If that continues, they would be within their rights to feel unfortunate if it is not enough to go up automatically.
According to the StatZone, the average number of points needed to claim second place in a 46-game League One season is 87. According to the same source, first place averages 93.4 – which is exactly the total Bolton are currently on course to get with their current points-per-game.
However hard you crunch the number to try and contextualise whether Wanderers are under or over-performing, there can be little argument that they still have time and requisite number of games left to play to settle the argument once and for all.
It feels like an asterisk has been placed on every Bolton update since August but at Cambridge – and with acts of God permitting – they will finally start putting a dent in their games in hand. The theoretical science becomes a reality.
Should Wanderers win all three of their games in hand on Pompey, they draw level on points. Winning the two they have in hand on Derby would see them climb three points above the Rams. And those are the sort of straightforward sums that Evatt and his side should be worried about, rather than the subjective views from the terraces.
There are 45 points left on the board for Bolton – but another key factor in this promotion chase is that they have only played seven games against sides currently in the top eight.
Only Portsmouth managed to beat them over the course of those seven games, and they are also the only side who has taken more points-per-game from the top eight (1.88 compared to 1.71 if you happen to be counting).
Wanderers have 15 games left, seven of which are against their current direct rivals in the table. Fair judgement will surely have to wait until that run has been completed?
“There is a long way to go, and we’re not done,” said Evatt, as he got up to leave the room on Saturday evening after the Charlton game. In a sense, he is not wrong, there is still a third of the whole season remaining.
But as anyone in football will attest, the last few months move the fastest. Before we know it, Easter will be upon us and the remaining fixtures will be down to single figures, Wanderers’ games in hand all cashed in.
There’s no more saving for a rainy day. Evatt and his side need to make these games count.
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