WHERE better than the birthplace of Charles Darwin to assess how far Bolton Wanderers have evolved this season?
For anyone who braved the snow and ice to watch Ian Evatt’s side in action at the Shrewsbury last season, the outcome felt depressingly familiar.
A direct team had peppered the Bolton box with set pieces, eventually forcing a cave-in, then a last-minute winning goal from Chey Dunkley.
There were some mitigating circumstances, Ricardo Santos was missing after being admitted to hospital with breathing difficulties the previous week with a particularly nasty virus. His aerial presence was certainly missed on the day.
Wanderers had other players struck down by illness in the build-up too, but on the same day that England crashed out of the World Cup to France, the mood was a miserable one, with many folk feeling that they had seen this sort of surrender too often.
As it turned out, the game was a turning point. Evatt’s team conceded just one goal in the next eight in all competitions. The defeat would be one of only two in 19.
Wanderers did not completely eradicate their issues with direct teams – as results against Wycombe, Burton and Accrington would go on to show – but few were looking at their defensive stability as the main issue when they reached the play-offs and bowed out to Barnsley.
A club record 27 clean sheets were kept, and folk looked at the struggle to break down their semi-final opponents as the chief problem to fix over the summer.
This season, clean sheets have been harder to come by with four in the league. And without adding a single new out-and-out striker over the summer, Bolton have suddenly scored more goals per game than anyone but Barnsley.
Some look at the departure of loanees, Conor Bradley and James Trafford, but a glance at the stats show that Bolton are not necessarily giving away more chances, especially in open play.
Only Oxford United (97) and Leyton Orient (105) have allowed fewer shots on goal than Bolton’s 109, and if expected goals is your thing then the Whites have a meagre 9.57, having conceded 11 times.
Set plays remain a source of some concern – even if only four have actually resulted in goals in League One this season. Only Cheltenham, Cambridge, Exeter, Peterborough and Reading have offered up more shots from corners, free-kicks etc, but so far it has not been especially costly.
Last season, Steve Cotterill’s Shrews were among the most dangerous sides from set pieces, as shown on that icy December day. This time around, Matt Taylor’s side continue to play direct football but have not yet managed to be quite as sharp in front of goal.
Shrewsbury may have conceded just as many goals as Bolton, but they have scored just five times from open play. Only rock-bottom Cheltenham Town have managed fewer.
At set pieces, Taylor’s side has created more – 56 shots and an XG of 3.98 – but have managed to score just once. Compare that to Bolton, who have mustered just 43 shots – Lincoln and Wigan are the only teams with fewer – but have racked up a massive six goals, making a mockery of their 3.16 XG.
For the uninitiated, Bolton go into this game as the team who should be considered dangerous from set pieces, which is quite some turnaround from the last time they travelled to Shropshire.
In Dion Charles, Wanderers have a player who seems to love playing at Shrewsbury. He scored a spectacular first goal for the club on the same ground back in January 2022, then another two back in December.
Even though he missed a penalty against Solihull on Saturday he still found time to grab an 11th goal of the season and had raced to double figures faster than anyone since Tony Caldwell 40 years ago. Thankfully, despite this being the month of Movember, Charles has not followed suit with his facial furniture.
Wanderers are currently managing to answer questions on all fronts, with the home defeat to Carlisle United now starting to look more like an anomaly than a defining moment.
The Whites have won seven of their last eight games, passing tests of their defensive resolve along the way, and scoring 25 times.
Shrewsbury will surely be another challenge on a cold Tuesday night but one they will certainly feel more equipped to cope with than they did last season.
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