Stats that show why Bolton Wanderers might be League One's most wasteful side

“I’d be more worried if they were not in the right position to miss them,” said just about every man or woman to have occupied a dugout since football became the national obsession.

Even the great Bill Shankly was not above defending his attacking players with a cliché, saying once of his England star (and former Wanderer) Roger Hunt: “Yes, Roger misses a few, but he gets in the right place to miss them.”

In more recent times, the rise of football data analysis – and in particular the metric known as xG – has provided a way of putting this well-worn line to the test. Measuring the quality of a goalscoring event using factors like where the shot was taken, or what led to it being created, what part of the body connected - every chance in a game can be given a numerical value.

In short, you can tell if a team is creating good opportunities, or players getting into the right areas, without a manager attempting to pull the wool over anybody’s eyes in a post-match press conference.

On Saturday, Ian Evatt had watched his team spurn a host of excellent opportunities in the first half at Accrington. They were eventually, and masterfully, suffocated after the interval by a well-drilled, side who revelled in Bolton’s lack of confidence on the day.

The ebb and flow of the game is perfectly captured by this xG chart by Experimental 3-6-1 (whose excellent work can be viewed here). Wanderers actually had a higher xG at the break but ‘flat-lined’ in the second half.

Bolton striker Eoin Doyle was in the thick of the goalmouth action in the first 45 minutes, registering two shots on target. He was not extensively involved in open play – touching the ball just 18 times, nine of which were in the Accrington half, but looked the most likely Whites player to break the deadlock.

In the second half he touched the ball just five times and did not register a shot at goal before being taken off for Xavier Amaechi.

Part of that drop had been a gradual decline in Wanderers’ quality in possession. Whereas only 17 per cent of their 199 passes were categorised as ‘long balls’ by Whoscored.com in the first half, that figure rose to nearly 25 per cent in the second half, playing into the hands of a physical and aerially proficient Accrington back line.

Doyle still finished the day with the second-highest individual xG score of 0.3, behind home defender Ross Sykes, but while the stats show he is getting into good goalscoring areas, his lack of a consistent return this season has been concerning.

Last term’s top scorer with 19 goals, Doyle fully rewarded Bolton’s decision to bring him in last summer but at 33, there are now questions being asked about his consistency at League One level.

Goal involvements (i.e goals and assists) have dropped to 0.23 per 90 minutes, which is lower than his relegation campaign with Bradford City in 2018/19 and heading towards the least productive spell of his career, set at Preston (0.20) in the Championship in 2015/16.

In comparison, Amadou Bakayoko (0.55), Xav Amaechi (0.55), Kieran Lee (0.53), Josh Sheehan (0.43), Elias Kachunga (0.38) and the departed Antoni Sarcevic (0.38) all return higher numbers.

Taking penalty kicks out of the equation – as some feel is necessary – Doyle is also delivering the lowest goalscoring stats of his career in English football, the total dropping to 0.12 goals per 90 minutes, below the 0.17 he managed at Preston in a higher division. He did not score at all for Bradford in League Two during 2019/20 but played just six games and found much better form on loan with Swindon Town.

Given the quality of chances that the stats tell us Bolton are creating, and Doyle’s past goalscoring record, the low numbers are somewhat surprising.

Wanderers are 15th in League One and have not scored away from home in their last six games, equalling a club record. Nevertheless, there are positive signs for Ian Evatt which suggest results will come once somebody – Doyle or otherwise - taps into a goalscoring seam.

According to theanalyst.com, Bolton have registered 243 shots in open play in the league, a total bettered only by Rotherham United. And their xG over the course is also second only to the Millers.

Their quality in possession also ranks highly. Only MK Dons keep the ball for longer, their sequence time of 10.19 seconds per attack slightly better than Bolton’s 9.62, and the men from Milton Keynes are also the only other side that builds up more attacks with 10+ passes (229 to 197).

But what of the end product, we hear you ask? Well, it should be noted that Bolton are third – behind MK and Ipswich Town – when it comes to attacks built with 10 passes or more that end in a shot, or touch in the box.

Recent performances, with an injury-hit side, are likely to have dented Wanderers’ numbers. Over the course of the season, however, the evidence points to a team which creates an abundance of chances in open play but scores only a small percentage of them.

What about the quick wins? Well, problems with set pieces are well documented. Along with Crewe, Wanderers have scored the fewest (two) from corners and free kicks. Bolton also rank 13th of 24 teams in shots from set pieces, and 16th for xG, suggesting there is plenty of room for improvement.

Evatt has defended Doyle, and his other front men, by pointing out that the team’s style of play relies heavily on their hard work out of possession, pressing high up the pitch, regaining possession, putting opposition defenders under pressure. And on that front, even Doyle’s biggest detractors would say he rarely lets the side down.

A metric known as PPDA measures the effectiveness of a team’s press, which in Bolton’s case is regularly triggered by the front men. Currently, Evatt’s side are seventh, behind Charlton, AFC Wimbledon, Oxford, Wigan, Rotherham and Portsmouth.

Again, like xG, the technically proficient work does not necessarily translate points. Bolton have the sixth highest turnover rate in the division but registerer the 15th most shots having won the ball, which has resulted in just the one goal.

So, though data taken over the course of the season suggests Bolton are generally doing the right things, and ‘getting into the right areas’ the short-term evidence is that of a team that cannot buy a break.

With so many players side-lined, Evatt has not had the opportunity to take out-of-form players out of the team as he may normally do. And in Doyle’s case in particular, there are no obvious replacements, even with a fully-fit squad.

The Bolton boss is adamant that with players coming back into contention and a Janaury window around the corner that form will soon reflect the more positive statistics outlined above. In the meantime, Wanderers must work hard to rid themselves of the tag of League One's most wasteful side.