Speaker choice is a shambles

Traditionally, the selection of the chairman for MPs' debate has been quietly carved up behind the scenes.

And when the longest serving MP, or "Father of the House", finally calls a vote, there are historically just two candidates -- the anointed winner and a rival there as window dressing.

It was a procedure familiar to old style Conservatives, who thoroughly approve of everything being sorted out beforehand by those in charge.

And traditional Labour MPs were equally happy with the system that mirrored the "democratic centralism" of Eastern Bloc Communist states, where the dictator made the decisions and the Parliament rubber-stamped them.

But now, this ancient procedure has fallen down with 13 candidates vying for the job -- with greater or lesser chances of success.

And no one knows how the election is going to take place.

It is all in the hands of the current Father of the House, Sir Edward Heath, who is keeping his cards close to his chest, although when he oversaw the choice of Betty Boothroyd for the job, he called the senior Privy Councillor first -- which in this case would be former Tory leader of the Commons Sir George Young.

He is one of the two favourites of the job -- the other being Glasgow Springburn MP Michael Martin, who, if chosen, would be the first Roman Catholic to hold the job since the Reformation.

But as one of the outside candidates, John McWilliam, former Edinburgh city treasurer turned Labour MP for Blaydon on Tyneside, put it: "The truth is, nobody really knows what is going to happen. Monday is going to be an interesting day"

What is expected to happen is that Sir Edward will call Sir George or Mr Martin first as "the motion", and then a string of other rivals as the "amendment".

Eventually, when he has an overwhelming vote for one of the challengers, or decides there is a consensus in favour of his original candidate, he will put the motion to the vote and hopefully produce a speaker.

But many MPs -- led by East Lancashire Labour left-winger Gordon Prentice, who was born and brought up in Edinburgh -- are deeply unhappy with the procedure.

It holds out the prospect of not all the candidates being voted on, the possibility that people may vote down their second choice to find their first choice not considered, and ultimately the nightmare prospect of ending up with no Speaker at all.

Mr Prentice, who has persuaded most candidates to issue manifestos and attend "hustings" to put their case to their colleagues, want an open secret ballot to be held instead.

But Sir Edward is adamant, and now everyone is waiting to find out what happens.

One experienced Labour veteran reckons that the best place to come in the procedure is third.

And supporters of former Cabinet Minister David Clark -- stitched up and sacked over his Freedom of Information Bill that went too far for his ministerial colleagues -- hope he will be in this privileged position.

The favourite, 55-year-old Mr Martin, and 59-year-old Sir George, could thus be very vulnerable.

Mr Martin faces opposition from two groups which have been eating into his early lead -- women MPs who dislike his opposition to breast feeding in the Commons and abortion, and English ones who are darned if they will have another Scot in a position of power at Westminster when Edinburgh has its own Parliament.

Sir George is widely considered to be the best candidate, but many Labour MPs are unwilling to vote for an Eton and Oxford educated baronet and "Toff's Toff".

But he has the unexpected support of Leader of the Commons Margaret Beckett and Labour Chief Whip Ann Taylor, who calculate that if a Tory man gets the job this time, next time round -- when they will no longer be in the Cabinet -- a senior Labour woman will be clear favourite for the well paid and influential post.

Next in line are Sir Alan Haselhurst, well respected but as dull as Mr Martin, and Menzies Campbell.

The 59-year-old Liberal Democrat MP for Fife North East faces the problem of his Scottishness and having been unofficially anointed for the task by Tony Blair.

However, he is admired and has a reasonable chance as long as party tribalism is cast aside.

His fellow Liberal Democrat -- Berwick MP and Deputy Leader Alan Beith -- is considered too dull despite a strong track record as a Commons performer. Similarly Tories Michael Lord, Sir Patrick Cormack and John Butterfill are highly unlikely to win, as is, sadly, Right wing Conservative libertarian Richard Shepherd.

If the favourites fall somewhere on the first circuit, the outsiders with the best chance are considered to be Mr McWilliam -- an experienced committee chairman and former Whip, Dr Clark (popular with rebellious Labour backbenchers and Tories), Crewe MP Gweneth Dunwoody and Tory maverick Nicholas Winterton.

Mrs Dunwoody should garner the female vote, but has upset the sisterhood by

supporting Miss Boothroyd's ban on breast feeding. Her track record as transport committee chairman and thorn in the Government's side gives her the necessary independence for the job.

And Mr Winterton -- now an able critic of the Labour Government, who was so effective at holding his own Conservative administration to account when chairman of the Commons Health Committee that the Tory Whips had him sacked -- has the same quality in Spades.

Exactly who will emerge is unsure, but many insiders tip Sir George or Mr Winterton, provided Labour backbenchers can be persuaded that with such a big majority an Opposition speaker is needed.

As a fail-safe the chosen candidate, who will by then have shed his or her party political links, has to be re-elected at the beginning of the next Parliament, so any mistake could be put right.

But most people believe that the biggest mistake is continuing with an archaic election, based on the time when Speakers had to be dragged to the chair of the Commons for fear they might be executed if the sovereign did not like the activities of the Chamber they controlled.

One backbencher said: "It's a ridiculous mess. The one thing we're all agreed

on is 'never again'."