A NEW report suggests that the slowdown in consumer spending growth in the North-west will not be as deep as feared.

Consumer Futures, a subsidiary of economic analysts Business Strategies, forecasts that the value of consumer spending growth in the region for the year including the Christmas period will be up by 5.3 per cent on last year -- or 3.6 per cent after allowing for inflation.

Melanie Lansbury, Associate Director of Consumer Futures, said: "This suggests that most shops, stores and supermarkets in the region and their customers will escape a bleak mid-winter.

"Consumer spending growth is expected to continue slowing next year, but the UK will probably avoid the first recession of the Millennium."

Spending in the North-west next year is forecast to increase by 3.3 per cent or 1.2 per cent after allowing for inflation.

The year after looks like being much the same.

Melanie Lansbury added: "With interest rates now at a 40-year low, and inflation also low and showing no signs of getting out of control, there seems no reason why large numbers of households should get into serious financial difficulties, as happened in the last recession."

The report contains detailed spending forecasts for the North-west.

Things like hi-fis, TV sets, personal computers and mobile telephones are forecast to see relatively rapid growth.

But spending growth on telecoms is forecast to slow to 5.3 per cent from an estimated rise of 8.3 per cent this year.

Chemists' goods and many services -- especially most financial services -- combine good growth prospects with relatively low risk, the survey shows.