A TOP economist has told Bolton business people that the signs are good for the UK economy in the second half of this year.

Mr Jeremy Peat, Group Chief Economist for the Royal Bank of Scotland Group, spoke at two events last week hosted by Dave Jones, Director, Commercial Banking for the Royal Bank of Scotland and Nat West in Bolton and Wigan.

The first was a lunch at the RBS Commercial office in Deansgate and the second was a presentation to 130 customers and professionals at the Arts and Conference Centre at Bolton School.

Mr Peat outlined problems in the world economy which had been exacerbated by the terrorist attacks in America.

But he felt the US economy was recovering and improvements in the global environment, although still fragile, would feed through to the UK.

"We can see the beginning of a bounce-back," he said.

The latest quarterly economic survey from the North West Chamber of Commerce, produced in association with the Royal Bank of Scotland, showed that a more positive picture emerged for both service and manufacturing industries during the first quarter of 2002, suggesting that the slowdown may have bottomed out.

"My expectations for this year are that we will have a far better year than last year," Mr Peat told the Bolton School audience.

"2002 will be a year of recovery and 2003 could be a pretty good one for all of us," he said." Mr Peat also discussed UK entry into the euro single currency -- in the headlines last week when Prime Minister Tony Blair said a decision was "getting close."

In Mr Peat's opinion there needed to be a referendum by May or June next year.

If that was going to happen it would need to be announced in the Queen's Speech in November.

He called for a full political discussion on the issue.

"Anyone who tells you they know whether it is right or wrong is fibbing," he said.

"Nobody knows. There is no certainty in this."