AS Theresa May prepares to travel to travel to Florence to unveil further details of her vision for Britain's future outside the European Union, a University of Bolton professor has warned 'Brexit will be tough'.

The Prime Minister's high-profile Brexit speech in the Italian city of Florence on September 22 is likely to be seen as a bid to break the deadlock in withdrawal negotiations, which resume in Brussels three days later.

Professor Mohammed Abdel-Haq, Chairman of the Centre for Opposition Studies — independent, cross-party research centre, based in Westminster — has called on the Prime Minister to be honest and admit there could be 'very difficult days ahead'.

Prepare us for the worst, Prime Minister — Brexit will be tough

By Professor Mohammed Abdel-Haq, Centre for Opposition Studies,

University of Bolton

'Brexit means Brexit- and we’re going to make a success of it.’

That, for more than a year, has been about the best we could get from the government about its approach to the most serious political and legal challenge facing the country in decades.

The phrase, repeated often by the Prime Minister and her colleagues, was clearly designed to reassure, and convey a sense of purpose and optimism: The will of the people will be respected, Brexit will happen, and the government will make it a success for the UK. Simple.

Except we know now, if we didn’t before, that it isn’t that simple.

And it certainly isn’t easy. Both main parties have conceded the first part of the declaration — Brexit will happen.

Those seeking to keep the UK inside the EU may be vociferous in their belief, but with both Labour and the Conservatives having fought this year’s General Election on the basis that the referendum result should stand, and with Article 50 having been triggered, that option seems a slim hope.

Debate is over and negotiations are underway in Brussels, and barring dramatic unforeseen events, Brexit will happen. Most voters accept that fact, regardless of how they voted, and many agree with the Prime Minister that democracy requires us to respect the choice the British people made.

But respecting the voters also requires us to give them the whole picture. Of course, the government will seek to negotiate the best deal it is able to get, and of course it plans to make the best of whatever result is arrived at. But hoping and working for the best shouldn’t stop them preparing us for the worst.

Giving the impression to the British people that Brexit will be an unqualified success requiring no hardships or compromises is unwise. Expectation management is an essential part of political success, as the Prime Minister should know only too well. She has, after all, won the highest share of the vote for the Conservative Party at the last general election of anyone since Mrs Thatcher, but is judged to have failed catastrophically to meet the expectations the Tories had of a landslide victory. Is she about to repeat that on an international scale?

Leaving aside that what the government wants still seems somewhat unclear, the Prime Minister would be well advised to prepare public opinion for the compromises that will be necessary if we are to achieve any deal at all, and the possibility of failure. She was very clear during her doomed General Election campaign that the negotiations would be extremely difficult, making a virtue of the fact by portraying herself as the ‘difficult woman’ best able to handle them. As she said then:

‘If we fail, the consequences for Britain and for the economic security of ordinary working people will be dire. If we succeed, the opportunities ahead of us are great.’

The commendable honesty of that first sentence now risks being forgotten amid exclusive focus on the optimism of the second. There is far too much rhetoric from ministers and prominent Conservatives suggesting that in this particular negotiation, despite its fearsome challenges and the advantages held by those on the EU side, the UK can get exactly the result it seeks through sheer determination. This seems unrealistic, to put it mildly. The divorce metaphor can be overdone, but when the spurned partner doesn’t want us to go, they have little motive to make it easy for us. Every negotiation requires compromises, with neither side getting exactly what they want.

Even if the government achieves a Brexit deal on the terms it seeks, the future for the UK may not match up to the rosy view put forward by committed Brexiteers, at least in the short term. Concluding trade deals around the world will take time, and are no guarantee of huge economic rewards. Many businesses fear the economy will take a hit in the short to medium term, hampered by skills shortages and uncertain investors. Until we actually leave, we simply have no way of knowing for sure what the full impact will be, but we should not dismiss lightly the warnings of those in the City of London who fear for the future.

An economic downturn must be considered a realistic prospect, which would only serve to heighten public anger when some of the wilder promises by Leave campaigners last year - £350 million a week for the NHS and so on – fail to materialise. It will then be too late for politicians to make excuses for the failure. They will be judged to have left the country unprepared, and to have misled people with unrealistic claims.

Mrs May should be keen to avoid such a fate – for her own sake, and for the good of the country. She should once again highlight the risk that Brexit poses in the short term, and admit that there could be very difficult days ahead before any of the promised benefits appear. Many ardent Leave campaigners conceded as much during the referendum campaign, viewing it as a price worth paying. The British people might agree, or they might not. But they deserve to be told that they could end up paying it.